Friday, November 2, 2007

Holiday Shopping Predictions 2007

Had a request for some data about top categories for Holiday 2007 this morning....so, I'll play "sharesies" and post the nuggets here:

HOLIDAY 2007 PREDICTIONS:

Forrester Research: 2007 Online Holiday Retail Sales To Hit $33 Billion
Monday October 15, 5:20 pm ET

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--US online retail sales this holiday season will reach $33 billion, a 21 percent increase over last year, according to Forrester Research, Inc.. The survey of 2,500 online consumers analyzed spending plans across eight retail categories.

Among the findings of this year's survey:

  • Apparel and accessories will top holiday shopping lists -- 80 percent of respondents said that they would purchase something in this category online during the upcoming holiday season.
  • A majority of consumers have a continued interest in free shipping promotions -- 61 percent of online consumers said that they are more likely to shop online with a retailer that offers free shipping.
  • Fewer consumers are willing to pay for "frills" like gift wrap or overnight delivery this year -- only 26 percent of consumers said they would pay for expedited delivery prior to the holiday season, down from 45 percent who said they would do so in 2006.
  • Gift cards promise to be a big winner during the 2007 holiday season -- 18 percent of online consumers said that they plan to spend more on gift cards this year, compared with last year.

"Retailers should have an action plan in place for how best to take advantage of gift cards following Christmas and through January, which is known to be the most active redemption period," said Forrester Research Principal Analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. "Online retailers that are ready to capture those customers will likely be able to maintain relatively strong sales, in spite of the traditional Q1 seasonal dip."

Forrester defines the holiday shopping season as the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas.


National Retail Federation:
There will be plenty of popular items on consumer wish lists this holiday season, but the most sought-after category appears to be the most practical: gift cards. This year, more than half (53.8%) of consumers want to receive a gift card or gift certificate as a holiday gift, though they won’t be the only item on shoppers’ wish lists. Consumers also want everything from clothing and accessories (50.1%) to books, CDs, DVDs, videos and video games (50.8%).

Other popular categories include consumer electronics or computer-related accessories (36.4%), jewelry (23.8%) and home décor or home-related furnishings (22.0%).

Consumer Reports:
• The number one gift consumers are planning to buy for the 2007 holiday season is clothing (71%). That was the category of gifts received in 2006 that triggered the most disappointment among recipients (38%). Fifty percent of men said they were disappointed to receive various types of clothing for the 2006 holidays including socks, sweaters and shirts.
• The number two gift consumers are planning to buy for 2007 is gift cards (62%), followed by electronics (53%).
• This year, the Consumer Reports Holiday Shopping Poll results suggest that gift-givers may want to opt for electronics. The poll found that consumers would most like to receive electronics gifts (19%), followed by gift cards (12%). Men, by far, wanted electronics the most (25%). The top gifts women want are gift cards (15%) and electronics (13%).

Consumer Electronics Association:
The latest proof comes from a study done by the Consumer Electronics Association. Its latest annual holiday buyers survey shows that consumer electronics products should "dominate the holiday wish lists of adults and teens, and will generate $48.1 billion in fourth quarter sales".

“Consumer electronics will be the shining star of holiday retail sales, accounting for 22 percent of all gifts given,” says CEA Economist Shawn DuBravac. “Two of the top five items on adults’ holiday wish lists are consumer electronics, and four of the top five items on the teen list are CE devices, so today’s hottest technologies will be on every holiday shopper’s mind. Holiday sales will be particularly jolly for the video game category (hardware and software), laptop computers and the endless array of accessories available for your favorite product.”

The top five wish list items for all adult survey respondents: computers, peace and happiness, big screen TV, clothes and money. Notably, the big screen TV moved up in the 2007 survey to number three from 11th in 2006. The teen list remained unchanged: clothes, MP3 player, video games, computer and cell phone.

“While overall holiday spending will increase, we found consumers are cutting back on decorations, home purchases and travel, but not gifts, especially electronics. The average CE gift giver will spend $358 on those gifts this season,” adds DuBravac.

CEA forecasts $22.1 billion will be spent on holiday CE gifts this year, which represents 46 percent of total fourth quarter revenue for consumer electronics. Total fourth quarter sales will reach $48.1 billion – a seven-percent increase from $44.8 billion in 2006.

The survey also tracked specific consumer electronics consumers hope to receive. The top five CE gifts adults wish for are MP3 players, notebook/laptops, video game systems, digital cameras and any type of TV. For teens, MP3 players, digital cameras, notebook/laptops, computers and any type of TV round out the top five items on their wish list.

Leading the “planned gift” list this year – a list of the CE products respondents intend to purchase for someone else -- are video game systems, additional memory for cameras, MP3 players, DVD players and digital cameras.

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